http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040815/pl_afp/us_vote_040815092928
Kerry leading Bush in key swing states
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Although polls show the US presidential race a virtual dead heat, Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites) appears to be gaining an edge over George W. Bush among the key states that could decide the outcome.
An AFP review of various polls showed the Massachusetts senator leading in the hunt for the decisive 538 electoral votes that are apportioned among the states and awarded in separate winner-take-all contests.
Nationwide, the November 2 election is shaping up as every bit as close as the 2000 cliffhanger in which outgoing vice president Al Gore (news - web sites) won the popular tally but lost to the Republican Bush by five electoral votes.
Voter surveys show Bush and Kerry running even. A Pew Research Center poll released Thursday put Kerry ahead 47-45 percent while a Gallup study Friday had Bush on top 48-47 percent, both margins statistically insignificant.
But with the electorate highly polarized and largely decided, Kerry seemed to have an advantage among the 16 "battleground" states stretching from Oregon to Florida that are considered still up for grabs.
The states account for 177 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Polls show the Democrat leading in 10 states with 119 electoral votes, Bush ahead in one state with six, and five states with 52 electors a tossup.
Added to the other states where no change is believed likely from 2000, the breakdown would give Kerry a 291-195 lead in electoral votes. But with 11 weeks to go before the election, the political chessboard could be easily upset.
If Bush once looked comfortable in the midwestern state of Ohio, which he won in 2000, Kerry has inched ahead in some polls. But the president is making a strong move in neighboring Pennsylvania, where he lost four years ago.
In some states it would take tantalizingly little to overturn the previous result: 6,765 votes in Oregon, 5,708 in Wisconsin, 4,144 in Iowa, 366 in New Mexico, and the famous 537 in Florida that clinched the deal for Bush.
So both candidates have been investing most of their time and media dollars in the battlegrounds, putting their chips down and hoping they can make the math come out right.
It's no coincidence that seven of the eight states on Bush's campaign tour last week were battlegrounds. Kerry's "Believe in America" road trip hit 13 of the 16 swing states.
The patchwork nature of US elections obliges the candidates to mix their broader pronouncements on Iraq (news - web sites), terrorism and the economy with attention to particular local sore points that could win or cost votes.
It might be rural education in Arkansas, immigration in Florida and New Mexico, nuclear waste disposal in Nevada, or the loss of jobs just about across the board -- the message gets tailored to the audience.
The importance of the swing states has raised the profile of voting communities such as Hispanics, who may be a minority but are strong in several coveted areas such as Florida, New Mexico and Nevada.
Even native Americans have made it onto the political radar screen. Indians are just one percent of the US population but 9.5 percent of New Mexico, so the Republicans have started to air radio spots in Navajo.
The system has also kept independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites) alive as a spoiler. Current polls show him with two percent support in Florida, slightly more than in 2000 when he arguably siphoned off critical votes from Gore.
The latest polls come after last month's Democratic convention, which produced only a marginal boost for Kerry. Republicans are playing down Bush's chances of doing much better when their gala opens in two weeks in New York.
But as both sides gear up for the home stretch run of their marathon campaign, they are mindful of Gore's agony when he beat Bush by 544,000 votes nationwide but lost the presidency after a bitter recount fight in Florida.
Gore, only the fourth man in US history to win the popular vote but lose the White House, joked at his party's convention, "You know the old saying: You win some, you lose some. And then there's that little-known third category."
A lesson from the Electoral College (news - web sites).
